Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 20.12% in August 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.76% from 21.88% recorded in July. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 126.8, which represents a 0.9% increase from 125.9 in July.

Year-on-year, inflation dropped by 12.03% from 32.15% recorded in August 2024. Meanwhile, month-on-month inflation decreased to 0.74% from 1.99% in the previous month, representing a 1.25% decrease in the average price level between both months.

Urban and Rural Inflation Trends

• Urban Inflation:
  • Year-on-Year Urban Inflation (August 2025): Stood at 19.75%, which was 14.83% lower than 34.58% in August 2024.
  • Month-on-Month Urban Inflation (August 2025): Recorded at 0.49%, down by 1.37% from 1.86% in July 2025.
  • 12-Month Average Urban Inflation (August 2025): Came in at 25.81%, representing a 7.63% drop from 33.44% in August 2024.
• Rural Inflation:
  • Year-on-Year Rural Inflation (August 2025): Recorded at 20.28%, which is 9.67% lower than 29.95% in August 2024.
  • Month-on-Month Rural Inflation (August 2025): Stood at 1.38%, down by 0.92% from 2.30% in July 2025.
  • 12-Month Average Rural Inflation (August 2025): Was 23.07%, down by 6.25% compared to 29.32% in August 2024.

Food Inflation

Year-on-Year (YoY): Was 21.87%, down by 15.65% from 37.52% in August 2024. The sharp decline is largely attributed to the change in the base year used for calculation.

Month-on-Month (MoM): was 1.65%, down by 1.47% from 3.12% in July 2025. Driven by a decrease in average prices of: Rice (Imported), Rice (local), Guinea corn flour, Maize flour sold loose, Guinea Corn (Sorghum), Millet, Semolina, Soya milk, etc.

12-Month Average (Annual Rate): 25.75%, which was 11.24% lower than the 36.36% recorded in August 2024.

Core Inflation – Excluding the prices of Volatile Agriculture Produces and Energy

Year-on-Year (YoY): Was 20.33%, down by 7.25% from 27.58% in August 2024.

Month-on-Month (MoM): Was 1.43%, up by 0.46% from 0.97% recorded in July 2025.

12-Month Average (Annual Rate): Was 23.04% (August 2025), lower by 2.14% than the 25.18% recorded in August 2024.

Outlook for August 2025 inflation

GTI Research Outlook: September 2025 Inflation to Maintain Downward Trend

Inflation in Nigeria is expected to continue its downward trajectory in September, supported by four key factors:

• Naira’s Steady Growth: The continued appreciation of the naira against the dollar is expected to ease import costs and, by extension, lower consumer prices.
• Capital Market Impact: A moderation in inflation should bolster investor confidence, encouraging greater market participation and improving market liquidity.
• Interest Rate Stability: The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has been maintained at 27.50% in H1 2025. Potential rate cuts could further ease inflationary pressures and strengthen overall macroeconomic stability.
• Improved Agricultural Output: Unlike August, increased rainfall in September is expected to support short-cycle crop harvests, thereby helping to moderate food prices.